WEBINAR RECAP: UNDERWATER | NEGATIVE EQUITY IS NOT JUST A CONSUMER PROBLEM

Average transaction prices near $50,000, loan terms stretching to 84 months, and softening used-vehicle values have put a record share of buyers underwater on their trade-ins. On August 12, 2026, AutoMobility Advisors convened a panel across retail, lending, and product strategy to work through what that actually costs each side of the deal. The full recording is above.

Panelists

George Ayres, Managing Director at AutoMobility Advisors, moderated. Special guest David Thomas, Director of Content Marketing at CDK Global, joined AMA's Allen Levenson, Director of Data and Analytics; Anoop Tiwari, Director of Innovation and Digital Strategy; and Kapil Shah, Principal Consultant.

What the panel covered

The discussion started from a single number: an average underwater balance of $7,183 across more than 3 in 10 new-vehicle trade-ins. From there the panel traced how that balance travels — suppressing trade-in volume, distorting loan-to-value ratios, raising lender risk, complicating lease returns, and quietly capping how many deals a store can close.

The group was candid about how negative equity shows up in desking and F&I, why the EV lease escape hatch that absorbed underwater balances through 2025 has largely closed, and which programs, pricing structures, and product moves genuinely help a customer get out from under a loan instead of rolling the problem into the next one. The session closed with live Q&A on what dealers, lenders, and OEMs can each do first.

Who this is for

Dealer principals and general managers, lenders and captive finance teams, OEM sales and remarketing leaders, and product or strategy teams working on affordability, subscription, and ownership models.

Watch the recording on YouTube. For the underlying research, read the white paper Underwater: Negative Equity Is Not Just a Consumer Problem and the companion analysis Negative equity is back, and the deal is doing the hiding. Event page: Underwater: Negative Equity webinar. A related read on trade policy: North American trade rules and the next round of negative equity.