Underwater: Negative Equity is not just a consumer problem

Negative equity has always been part of auto finance. What has changed in 2026 is its scale and its staying power. More than 3 in 10 new-vehicle trade-ins now carry negative equity, the average underwater balance has climbed above $7,000 (more than 42% higher than it was in 2019), and 84-month terms now make up roughly 1 in 8 retail transactions. With transaction prices averaging nearly $50,000 and interest rates still elevated, more buyers are bringing deeply underwater loans back to the desk and rolling that balance forward into their next vehicle.

This white paper from AutoMobility Advisors examines why negative equity has become a structural constraint across auto retail and lending, rather than the consumer-finance footnote it used to be. It traces how a balance that most buyers carry harmlessly early in a loan turns into a problem that follows them from one vehicle to the next, and it shows where that cycle leads if the industry does nothing to interrupt it.

The paper starts with the fundamentals, defining equity and explaining why most financed and leased vehicles spend their early life underwater before crossing into positive territory. It then shows how residual value subvention and other lease incentives can keep a vehicle underwater for its entire term, and why the popular idea of “burying” negative equity is a misnomer for quietly carrying it forward at a higher monthly cost.

From there, the analysis follows the rollover trap. To absorb a large negative balance without breaching loan-to-value limits, buyers get steered toward more expensive vehicles chosen mainly for their incentives, which all but guarantees the next loan stays underwater well into its term. A consumer case study tracks one buyer from a paid-off Honda Accord in 2022 to a used Tesla Model 3 with a $1,000-plus monthly payment and a roughly $20,000 underwater position by 2026, and a practitioner sidebar revisits the hard subprime lessons of the Mitsubishi era.

A dedicated section explains why the EV escape hatch has closed. Through 2025, a leased electric vehicle could absorb thousands in negative equity through a pass-through federal tax credit and unusually deep incentives. With that credit expired and incentives pulled back, the lease cash that once smoothed over an underwater trade-in has largely disappeared, removing the quick fix that many buyers and dealers had come to rely on.

The paper closes with what the industry can actually do. It lays out upfront financial education modeled on mortgage practice, the use of equity mining to surface refinance candidates instead of only upgrade targets, and a way to reframe high-incentive vehicles as transparent negative-equity assistance, paired with a clear plan and timeline for ending the cycle rather than perpetuating it.

Whether you lead OEM incentive strategy, underwrite at a captive or a bank, run an F&I office, manage remarketing and residual risk, or advise dealers on deal structure, this paper offers a clear-eyed look at how negative equity is reshaping affordability and risk, along with a practical set of moves for getting ahead of it.

Prefer to hear the panel talk it through? Watch the webinar recap: Underwater — Negative Equity Is Not Just a Consumer Problem, featuring CDK Global's David Thomas alongside the AMA authors. For the trade-policy angle, read North American trade rules and the next round of negative equity.