EXTRA! Vehicle-to-Grid Expansion Saves Planet!
the AutoMobility Roadmap on California’s energy dynamics and the role of electric vehicles! Despite challenges in solar overgeneration, EVs present a solution to utilize surplus energy effectively.
The Green Acceleration
AutoMobility Roadmap Newsletter The Green Acceleration October 23, 2023 Rapid technological advancement is often a symptom of great human need. On a fateful December day in 1903, the Wright Brothers accomplished the first controlled flight of a heavier-than-air aircraft. After almost 5000 years of human civilization, this was the first time that humans were able to achieve this momentous feat. Yet, 66 years later, within one single lifetime, man landed on the moon. These 66 years saw two globe spanning conflicts and one of the most rapid eras of technological development in human history. Simply put, the need to defeat advanced and threatening enemies drove near-unthinkable levels of innovation. In the 21st century, a new enemy has arisen, one perhaps as existentially threatening or more than the United States’ previous adversaries abroad. This new enemy is not an ideology or a country, but the dangers to our planet that have resulted from decades of burning excessive fossil fuels. Climate change is the next great hurdle humans have to overcome. The United Nations among a variety of other global organizations has reported that the Earth’s temperature has increased by an average of about 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit since 1880 and could potentially warm by 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit by 2050. Assuming that nothing is done to curb this change, these higher temperatures will result in water shortages, unlivable summer conditions, higher ocean temperatures, and greater prevalence of extreme, life threatening weather events. Though grim, this challenge is not insurmountable, and the automotive industry has an increasingly viable solution. The investment into and mass adoption of electric vehicles will have an enormous impact on slowing the climate change crisis, especially as growing need drives further innovation. According to the EPA, the transportation industry accounts for 29% of all US Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions. This sector of the economy is by far the largest contributor to GHG emissions, and the EPA has thus far spent decades working to curb these numbers. Globally, passenger cars produce nearly 3 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions per year. Moreover, cars and vans alone produce just under 50% of all global carbon emissions. It is clear that the automotive industry makes up a disproportionate percentage of the world’s emissions output, so the adoption of EVs will make a significant impact on the efficacy of the global climate response. Regulators, automakers, and consumers alike have recognized that EVs are an important step towards reducing these numbers, and great strides are being made towards conquering the challenge presented by the climate crisis. Since 2016, most major automakers and new automotive startups have funneled enormous amounts of capital and talent into EVs. In the last two years alone, investment has skyrocketed from $50 billion to $210 billion, driven by stricter legislation and widespread consumer demand for environmentally conscious vehicles. Much of the investment goes towards developing brand new EV models. Companies such as Ford and GM now have flagship EV models that are able to compete directly with the likes of Tesla and Rivian. Moreover, consumers are noticing and rewarding automakers for their commitment to EVs. In Q3 this year, Tesla’s share of the EV market dropped below 50%, as more buyers look to traditional manufacturers offering competitive products. However, this was the strongest quarter for EV sales ever, with over 300,000 vehicles sold, surpassing both Q2 and passing Q3 2022 by almost 50%. Coming in at just under 8% of the total market sales in Q3, EVs have a long way to go until they dominate the market, but these bullish sales figures paint a rosy picture for environmentalists, regulators, and OEMs alike. The next step in reducing carbon emissions is the mass implementation of battery-electric medium and heavy duty vehicles. A frequent point of discussion on the AutoMobility Roadmap, electric commercial vehicles have the potential to completely overhaul the way in which businesses produce carbon emissions. Cutting out nearly 25% of all transportation CO2 emissions (456.6 million tons of carbon dioxide) sounds like an impossibility, but with such strong financial incentives from the US government, it is closer to reality than previously thought. A plethora of commercial vehicle companies are investing time and money into developing practical EVs that fill the needs for markets such as tractor trailers and delivery trucks. Attacking toxic emissions outputs from this direction is sure to be a necessary step in the battle against climate change. In the grand scheme of things, the battle against climate change has only just begun. EVs still make up a small minority of the market, and the challenges around their production have not yet been solved. 110 years ago, the aviation industry was in the same situation. Difficult production of expensive novel technologies held aircraft back. But with time and urgent need, this lull was rapidly reversed, leading humanity to walk on the moon not six decades later. EVs have reached that critical stage, and as summers become hotter and severe weather more deadly, it is almost inevitable that EVs will capture a large enough portion of the market to make a stand against climate change. Learn more about how the AutoMobility Advisors team can help you and your business seize the amazing opportunities to serve the new mobility market. Click on the link below and get in touch, we’d love to talk with you! Home Let us help you succeed in AutoMobility! 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MOVE America: Keynote by Witricity’s CEO Alex Gruzen
Wireless charging solutions are rapidly becoming a high priority in our quest to integrate them seamlessly into the infrastructure of our cities and homes. Witricity, a pioneer in this field since 2007, has been at the forefront of this transformation.
MOVE America: Keynote presentation by Amir Tirosh, CEO of StoreDot
Amir Tirosh, CEO of StoreDot, shared insights about his company and its innovative solutions for electric vehicles (EVs).
Carpe EV Diem
Automobility Roadmap Newsletter – A perspective on all the changes in automotive transportation and the technology that’s now driving you. This week’s topic Carpe EV Diem and the EV adoption future.
The High Cost of EV Adoption Today
George Ayres Automotive | Leader | Sales | Marketing | Mobility | Connected | Electric | Autonomous | Shared | Revenue | Growth 18 articles The transformation of the auto industry from internal combustion engines to battery power is accelerating, no doubt about it. And the infrastructure, charging networks, and government support for this change are increasing. Consumer themselves are listening, learning, and becoming more interested in moving towards EV’s too. The article below describes a recent Consumer Reports survey that said 14% of people would definitely purchase an EV, but twice this number (28%) definitely “would not” consider an EV. What about the 58% in the middle? What will it take to move them? I think the main issue at the moment is not range, charging infrastructure, or fear of new tech. It’s simply cost. EV’s are expensive right now. Too expensive! And it seems things will be this way for at least 3 years. Let’s look at why. https://www.linkedin.com/embeds/publishingEmbed.html?articleId=8431522422095463804&li_theme=dark It’s clear that soon we will have many varieties of electric vehicles available, and some will be more affordable. All OEM’s are moving quickly. Just take a look at the center-spread of this week’s Automotive News (shown below) and you can see that every Automaker is moving faster to transform their product line-up to more EV’s. And States like California are moving to full EV only. But much of this terrific new product development is not helping buyers yet, as the models currently available for sale are all just too expensive. For example, the EV market leader, Tesla, has not expanded its model range for awhile, and even the Model 3 starts at $45k. Ford has the F-150 Lightning and Mach E, but they both cost $40k or more, and very hard to get. And yes, the Cadillac Lyriq sold out in a few hours, but it is in very limited production and costs over $60,000 which is much more expensive than the majority of the buyers in the new car market can afford. And because GM is no longer eligible, there is not even an EV tax credit for this vehicle. But GM did recently reduce the price of the Chevy Bolt. So GM is clearly thinking about EV affordability. https://www.linkedin.com/embeds/publishingEmbed.html?articleId=8673126474556867075&li_theme=dark But all of the new EV vehicles are not here yet. And people need to buy something, or upgrade their current vehicle, and can’t wait. Supply is constrained due to the ongoing semi-conductor chip shortage. And component material prices for batteries are increasing, especially for lithium and cobalt, due to the overall growing EV demand. See the article below from Alix Partners, a research firm, outlining the current situation. One key point they mention is this comparison. “At $3,662 per vehicle (in the US), ICE raw-material content is nearly double pre-pandemic levels. This pales in comparison to BEV raw-material content, which is now $8,255 per vehicle. The disparity is driven largely by cobalt, nickel, and lithium prices.” https://www.linkedin.com/embeds/publishingEmbed.html?articleId=7764712561928756266&li_theme=dark While new advances in battery technology like “solid-state” batteries promise better range and greater materials supply, these batteries currently cost four times more than standard lithium-ion batteries, exaggerating the current problem. Toyota is well placed to lead in this area, but it will be awhile before we see the majority of vehicles with solid-state batteries. https://www.linkedin.com/embeds/publishingEmbed.html?articleId=9124043172319042537&li_theme=dark Add in rising global inflation, which means you can buy less for the same money, and a war in Ukraine which keeps energy markets volatile, and no wonder consumers are hesitating. While they are paying $5 for gasoline, and sure don’t like it, coming up with the cash for a new EV is getting harder and harder. For example, the average new car payment is now over $700 per month. Since the cost of borrowing is rising as the Fed raises interest rates to combat inflation, car buyers can either buy less car, or they have to put up more of their income for a car. Since all other prices are also rising, like mortgage payments, groceries, and school supplies, they feel the squeeze. https://www.linkedin.com/embeds/publishingEmbed.html?articleId=7812184282103910342&li_theme=dark And the average car loan length is now six years, which means that consumers that buy ICE vehicles today will be “upside down” a few more years longer, meaning they will owe more for the car than the car is worth. A negative equity situation. We have seen this phenomenon in the car market more than once, and it never works out for the either the consumer or the automaker. It delays purchases and keeps people trapped in their old technology. The average car on the road in the US is currently 12.2 years, which is much longer than historically we have seen. The current financing market dynamics are suggesting this may get even longer. The promise of a new EV will be in the distant future for too many. https://www.linkedin.com/embeds/publishingEmbed.html?articleId=8622472421372719983&li_theme=dark So if OEM’s want people to move to EV’s they need to bring affordable EV’s to market. They need to work with the government and their ecosystem to ensure that there is wide penetration of EV infrastructure. And of course the government needs to increase EV incentives and encourage more switching from ICE to EV, and not with just tax cuts. What about helping people pay for installing home chargers? While there is good commitment for this from the current administration, these programs are not yet simple, practical, and easy to access. Why not a “voucher” system for anyone buying an EV from a dealer, or even online, to receive a rebate on the cost of a home charger. Tax credits are hard to access and too far removed from the original cost outlay. Consumers need relief on this cost more quickly. https://www.linkedin.com/embeds/publishingEmbed.html?articleId=6987414249488379809&li_theme=dark Overall consumer will move to electric vehicles, the trend is now inevitable, as product development cycles for automakers are many years long. The ocean liner turns slowly. So we will see lots of EV choices for new car buyers in a few years. And high volume categories like Pick-up trucks will even be very EV
The Auto Digital Experience Fight Club
George Ayres Automotive | Leader | Sales | Marketing | Mobility | Connected | Electric | Autonomous | Shared | Revenue | Growth 18 articles Ok, what happens when you put all the competitors in a room and tell them to start swinging while simultaneously placing bets to pick the winners (and of course the losers) too? You guessed it, a fight club where it’s everyone for themselves. Makes a good movie perhaps, but does it make for a good way to digitally transform the automotive user experience? Are owners, drivers, riders, and fleets better off with tools that only work in one setting, or vehicle, and not in another? Do you need to put on a new pair of digital driving shoes each time you jump in a different car? Well, currently we are witnessing a sort of fight club mindset within car software experience development. It may get a little bloody, so hang on. First, some boundary, or “ringside ropes” terminology to clarify this discussion. In the battle for the Digital Experience within Automobiles there are many terms, but all eventually come down to the same thing: How the car works when you’re either inside it, or controlling it remotely when outside of it. We can include ideas like “Software-Defined Vehicle” and the in-vehicle “Operating System,” in this mix. And proprietary names like Apple CarPlay or Google’s Android Auto are part of it too. And Amazon Alexa, as a way to control the experience with your voice, is included. And now we can add new names like “Ultifi,” General Motor’s new “end-to-end software platform” that is “designed to unlock new vehicle experiences and connect customers’ digital lives” as their announcement recently said. All of these things are coming together very rapidly, and the gloves have now been taken off all the participants. They used to play nice together, but now it’s getting serious. For decades of course, only the carmakers controlled how the car worked; how you turned the radio on, adjusted the climate control, or how the car collected data. Then they started working with other companies like Verizon and WirelessCar to enable “telematics,” a way to transmit vehicle information to an off-board platform and for the vehicle to receive instructions “over-the-air” or OTA. Then smartphones came along and customers started to complain that if they actually complied with the local highway safety rules, and did not use or talk on their handheld phone while driving, then the car effectively became a black hole for them. They were “off the grid” in terms of data and communication when they were driving. Since nearly everyone now relies on text, email, internet, and voice, to do basically anything, the automakers then needed a way to integrate these phones into the car so they could be used on the move without distraction. So Apple was given access to the vehicle and introduced Carplay, and Google was given access and introduced Android Auto. This was a love/hate relationship for most Auto OEM’s because when they give access, they lose control of the experience. Sometimes they forget of course that customers really LIKE their Apple i-phone experience, and enjoying this in their car as well is a good thing for owner loyalty. Once the door was open and the tech companies had access, they started pushing on it harder. Many Auto OEM’s have now signed up to let them too, and we’ll see if they are taking a punch in the process. At right is a recent listing from Google about the OEM’s that use the Android Automotive O/S. And just this week Apple made a big announcement about the new CarPlay and its ability to “more deeply integrate with a car’s hardware.” Ouch! Here is a view of what they mean. Without leaving the Apple interface you will be able to adjust climate controls, for example, so that you’re not jumping between CarPlay and the vehicle controls, keeping you inside the Apple O/S while you drive. It’s kind of like pushing you up against the ropes and holding you there awhile. From a carmaker point of view, ceding control of the customer experience for actually operating the car must be gut-wrenching. But they have already done it for music and “infotainment” so why not for other functions? But where does Apple stop and the Automaker’s own systems begin? How will GM’s Ultifi, for example, work with Android Auto and Apple CarPlay? What is Ultifi giving up? Who is going to win the fight for control of the experience? It’s a melee today. Below as great chart from my friends at MotorMindz that shows a few good examples of how some Auto OEM’s are betting on winning this fight themselves. Of course for over 100 years automakers have controlled how their cars got built, but once sold, they were done. The only things they needed to worry about was paying for repairs under the warranty. Now they want to control, or at least participate in, how their cars get “operated and updated” by the first, second, and even third owners. Over the “lifetime” of your vehicle, they want to continuously upgade how your car works, help you enjoy improvements in operations and performance (and charge you for this) and generally make a car like a smartphone, with easy to install OTA updates. But what happens when Apple decides they don’t want to make that change to how the climate control gets adjusted, either because they are not ready or because they are not getting paid to do it? Does the Automaker have any recourse to force them? Giving up control has a downside if you are an OEM. Of course, the driver or passenger wants the best experience, so delays in making updates, or incompatibility stemming from a fight for control of the experience, may end up disappointing users, who will remember who’s car worked seamlessly, and who’s didn’t. One of the reasons Apple has been successful across phones, computers, tablets, and even tv’s is