Truck Truck Go!
With the holiday season upon us, millions of Americans look to purchase their next vehicle. As environmental consciousness and government incentives continue to increase, many will decide that their next vehicle will be all electric.
Sustaining the Auto Industry
AutoMobility Roadmap Newsletter Sustaining the Auto Industry November 8, 2023 November 8, 2023 Since the Second World War, every decade of American automotive culture has had a defining characteristic. The 1950s were defined by chrome and fins, the 60s by muscle cars, the 70s by the malaise, and so on and so forth. While it is only 2023, a fairly clear pattern has emerged that will most likely be the single defining characteristic of this decade: sustainability. Sustainability can mean a variety of things in the world of automotive, from better materials used in manufacturing to increasing the market share of electric vehicles. The definition of sustainability according to the EPA is “creating and maintaining the conditions under which humans and nature can exist in productive harmony to support present and future generations.” Unfortunately, for many of these prior decades, the acts required to pursue sustainability were accidentally or purposefully ignored by many segments of the automotive industry and American society. However, with increasingly dangerous environmental consequences forecasted by the world’s top scientists, sustainability is now at the forefront of global conversation. Automakers, whether out of a motivation for increased profits or mandates from the federal government, are attacking the issue of sustainability from a variety of angles. The sum total of this effort will in theory transform an industry known for damaging the environment to an industry that actively works to sustain it, ensuring that vehicles continue to be a net positive far into the future. One of the biggest questions surrounding widespread EV adoption is the sustainability of material sourcing. EVs require significant amounts of rare earth minerals (REMs) which are often sourced from less-developed countries. EV batteries are made up of materials such as lithium, cobalt, copper, and nickel, with the vast majority of lithium mining taking place in Australia, Zimbabwe, and Brazil. Popular mechanics reports that the average EV requires 8 kg of lithium to manufacture. With the global available lithium reserve at 22 million tonnes, there is no apparent shortage of material required to construct an enormous amount of electric vehicles. However, as of 2021, the total world production of lithium was 105 tonnes, and by 2030, it is possible that manufacturers will need to acquire up to 450,000 tonnes of lithium per year. More problematic still, lithium mines are extremely water intensive and are notorious for polluting water sources while causing significant damage to local biospheres. As a part of making EVs sustainable, new methods must be devised to reduce the impacts of lithium mining. Luckily, a lithium mine in Snow Lake, Manitoba is taking the lead on the future of EV sustainability. The idea behind the Snow Lake lithium mine is to create an all electric mining operation. Positioned next to a hydroelectric power station, Snow Lake Lithium hopes to draw 98% of their power from the dam while similarly not using any diesel burning vehicles to extract or haul materials. Lithium is currently extracted using two methods: hard rock and brine. The hard rock mining process requires less water than brining, and the Snow Lake mine plans to employ this method to save water and reduce contamination of the local environment. In theory, this mine could produce up to 160,000 tonnes of 6% lithium spodumene every year, providing OEMs a sustainable and local source of materials so essential for the next generation of electric technology. Assuming Snow Lake Lithium is able to reach its expected potential, it is not unreasonable to extrapolate that more mines will follow suit, leading towards an overall marked improvement in the sustainability of car battery production and compliance with the Inflation Reduction Act. Going beyond the obvious issues with battery sourcing, OEMs have a variety of other unsustainable practices surrounding material acquisition. An example of this is the amount of leather used for car interiors. In Brazil, the auto industry uses over 30% of all leather hides produced from the country’s cattle ranches, a side effect of the meat industry driving rampant deforestation and destroying millions of acres of the Amazon rainforest. Environmentally sustainable leather could look like buying from more ethical and regulated domestic sources or improving the quality of synthetic materials. Along the same lines, keeping parts manufacturing close to the location of final assembly will drastically reduce the emissions caused by international shipping. Maritime shipping alone accounts for about a billion tons of greenhouse gasses per year and make up 3% of all global emissions by themselves. This does not account for air cargo, trucking, rail or any other way of moving goods across the world. A concerted effort by OEMs and mobility providers to move their supply chains physically closer together is essential to sustainability in the long term and will likely reduce costs as federal regulations around parts sourcing tightens. OEMs have a myriad of different ways to attack their chronic sustainability issues. Nearly every part of the industry could be made more environmentally conscious in some way without a long term increase in costs. Investment in things like supply chain integration and advanced mining may seem like an undue financial burden now, but by the end of the decade, the payoffs – both financial and environmental – will be abundantly clear. Working towards a sustainable future will be the primary mission for the auto industry for the foreseeable future, and if the right decisions are made, the 2020s will be remembered as the decade of sustainability for generations to come. Learn more about how the AutoMobility Advisors team can help you and your business seize the amazing opportunities to serve the new mobility market. Click on the link below and get in touch, we’d love to talk with you! Home Let us help you succeed in AutoMobility! 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Turning EV Dreams Into Reality: Fleet Edition
EVs are solidifying their place as the future of automotive technology. With billions of dollars of investment pouring in from national governments and the private sector, it is abundantly clear that electric technology is here to stay.
Electric – Connected – Predictive
As the automotive industry transitions towards EVs, many important questions have arisen about maintaining these increasingly complex and expensive vehicles.
Broken Record
With summer winding down, one theme dominated headlines around the world for the last two months: record heat. Temperatures from California to Greece reached record highs, with hundreds of millions of people locked in a months-long pattern of extreme temperatures with little relief. In Phoenix alone, residents experienced a mind-boggling and dangerous record of 31 consecutive days with high temperatures over 110 degrees Fahrenheit. In Asia, the Caribbean, and in Europe, countries faced unprecedented stretches of heat with the Italian region of Sardinia hitting nearly 120 degrees Fahrenheit. Coupled with abnormally dry conditions, hugely popular tourist destinations such as Rhodes and Maui faced massive fires killing hundreds of people and causing billions of dollars worth of damage. It is evident that summer is getting hotter and more dangerous. The question is, what can the auto industry do to speed up efforts to change the vehicle mix and help combat climate change? Great progress has been made in the last 15 years in the development and adoption of both EVs and importantly connected car services. EVs have captured a significant minority of global new car sales, increasing from 4% of new car sales in 2020 to 14% in 2022. .Likewise, according to research done by Smartcar, 91% of all vehicles sold in the United States in 2020 were connected to the internet, bringing advanced features to customers and moving the industry closer to the concept of software defined vehicles. These high-tech advancements were intended not only to improve the customer experience, but also to lessen the automotive industry’s impact on climate change. EVs are projected to phase out ICE powered vehicles, eliminating tailpipe emissions, while connected vehicle software will optimize the user experience and efficiency of vehicles. Despite these efforts however, climate change is not slowing down, and a variety of new problems have arisen that significantly impact the benefit afforded by EVs and advanced connected car technologies. These issues range from vehicle wear, to power grid drain, to rare earth material (REM) shortages. An article published last week by The Drive reported that the tires on Rivian’s R1T and R1S models are wearing out in as few as 6,000 miles. Rivians are notably very heavy and have massively powerful electric motors able to propel the three and a half ton vehicles to 60 mph in 3.3 seconds. But the incredible power and weight of these EVs have seemingly left the tires fitted to the vehicles outclassed, creating the potential for an enormous increase in rubber waste and ownership expenses. As EVs become larger, heavier, and faster this problem will only increase, fueling the current environmental crisis and apprehension about EV adoption. In the Sun Belt, the dangerously hot summer conditions caused the need for around the clock air conditioning in spaces across most of the affected states, It was reported by Arizona Public Service that July 14th and 15th each set records for the highest consumer power demand in the state’s history. And Arizona’s power supply runs mostly on natural gas, which while better than coal, still contributes to the pollution of the atmosphere. Higher temperatures caused by climate change require more air conditioning, which in turn creates more pollution. EVs are not responsible for this situation, but their increasing need for power may have long term impacts on states still utilizing fossil fuel power generation methods. So increased demand from consumers to cool their homes and charge their EVs fuels a vicious cycle fueling the climate crisis. All of these issues in conjunction with the exponential growth in chip demand for high-tech vehicles has forced the auto industry to face unexpected and sometimes uncomfortable questions about their collective efforts to combat climate change. The news is not all bad however, as the products and services that are having unintended consequences on the climate may also be able to help solve them. Though costly, measures such as bi-directional charging, where EVs contribute excess power back into a home or the grid could be implemented as a way to shed some of the electrical load caused by extreme weather. A less expensive alternative that is available today is interruptible charging, in which vehicle charging can be remotely controlled and suspended while plugged into home chargers during the hours where electricity demand is at its highest. Another option is smart routing which could bring down the environmental cost of ownership and help offset the climate impact of bringing new technology into vehicles. It is inevitable that EVs will continue to gain market share, and software defined vehicles will become the industry standard. With creative and proactive solutions such as those mentioned above, the automotive industry will be able to more successfully contribute to the struggle against climate change, working to safeguard the world for future generations. All of us in the automotive industry can make a big difference.
Summertime Classics
This past Father’s Day, two parts of the AMA team had the opportunity to celebrate the occasion by enjoying the Cheekwood Concours d’Elegance in Nashville, Tennessee. Dan, our Advisory Director, and his son Hayden, our Head of Market Research, are lifelong car enthusiasts, with Dan having spent extensive time in the industry and Hayden growing up surrounded by car culture. Both of them are passionate about classic cars, and Hayden aims to share this love with other members of the younger generation. Hayden is a rising senior at Harvard studying history as well as a cadet in the Air Force ROTC program, with an interest in all things fast stemming from an early exposure to muscle cars and supercars. Below we describe our favorite vehicles at the show and some of the observations garnered from the outing. Boasting a fun and friendly environment, the Father’s Day show was an absolute blast. With cars spanning nearly one hundred years of automotive history, it was fascinating to see some of the greatest vehicles of different eras in perfect working order. Going chronologically, the oldest and perhaps most interesting cars at the show were the 1927 Rolls Royce Phantom I, a 1930 Lincoln Sport Roadster, and the selection of Packards from the 30s. Evoking feelings of splendor and glamour, the Gatsby-esque Rolls Royce was more akin in size to a Ram 2500 than a Rolls Royce Phantom of today. Fun to imagine what life might have been like for the lucky aristocrat or baron who had the privilege to be driven around in such a vehicle. A favorite feature of the car was the dual windscreens. Though not unique to Rolls Royce, the concept of a two windshield convertible coach exudes prestige and class while encapsulating the design language of the roaring 20s. An absolutely extraordinary piece of engineering. The next car that really caught our attention was the 1930 Lincoln Sport Roadster with a body built by Locke and Company of Rochester, New York. One of a mere 15 models ever produced, this was probably the rarest car at the exhibition. Finished in two tone green with a tan convertible top, this special Lincoln cost over $5000 new (nearly $90k today accounting for inflation). This car is one of three surviving examples of the original production run, and has gone through two restorations in order to preserve the car’s rich history for modern day car enthusiasts. Unsurprisingly, the roadster is frequently featured at prestigious events including but not limited to Amelia Island, the Glenmor Gathering, and St. Johns. I really enjoyed the combination of 20s and 30s car design combined together to create the ultimate Depression-era roadster. Seldom seen on American roads anymore, the show boasted several Packards from the 1930s. Two Packard Super Eights, a green convertible built in 1934 and a red sedan built in 1937 were on display. Both cars had beefy straight eight cylinder engines and would not look out of place in a 1930s gangster movie. More interesting than that, we had the opportunity to sit in and hear the owner start a 1938 Packard Twelve Coupe Roadster. Powered by a 437 cubic inch V-12 paired with a three speed manual transmission, the remarkable engine was nearly silent upon start. Epitomizing 30s luxury, the car at new would come in at a whopping $122,000 adjusted for inflation. Additionally, a great variety of more “classic” post-WWII American and European cars were on display. Our personal favorites were a 1959 Cadillac Coupe DeVille, a 1958 Porsche 356a Speedster, and a 1969 Mercedes 280 SL Roadster. Timeless but each encapsulating their different eras, we also had the opportunity to sit in and explore the interior of the Mercedes. Showcasing some early connected features, this car had a 5-band radio. Even cooler, it was the one featured in the Mercedes-Benz 2011 Super Bowl commercial. Far from the features of a modern car, it is nonetheless intriguing to examine the precursors of connected vehicles. With that, we’ve covered our favorite cars from the Cheekwood Concours d’Elegance. Going to events like this is an essential activity for any car enthusiast, because rarely is so much automotive heritage on display in such pristine condition. As EVs are phased in and ICE cars are retired from production, there’s something special about seeing and experiencing the power and feel of classic cars. Happy belated Father’s Day and Fourth of July!
AMA at Auto Tech: Detroit 2023
Bridging the long gap between CES 2023 and CES 2024, AutoTech Detroit marks a productive halfway point through the year for the automotive industry to showcase their latest advances and outlooks in automotive technology.
AMA at Auto Tech: Detroit 2023
Bridging the long gap between CES 2023 and CES 2024, AutoTech Detroit marks a productive halfway point through the year for the automotive industry to showcase their latest advances and outlooks in automotive technology. Attended by nearly 2500 industry professionals, 250 exhibitors, dozens of speakers, and 850 companies, AutoTech found itself to be a bustling hub for business discussions, collaboration, and planning for the future. The showing was impressive this year, continuing to prove that the want and need for trade shows was not killed by virtualization born from the Covid-19 pandemic.With such a focused gathering of automotive technology suppliers and OEMs, the content and business of the show was dominated by a few major themes. Coming up constantly across the panels from many experts ranging from Verizon, T-Mobile, and AT&T executives, to senior business development leaders across the major OEMS, connected cars and the future of connectivity took center stage during the show. Beginning the show with a bang, AT&T and safety solutions provider Haas Alert announced that cellular data used to provide vehicle safety features would be free in order to facilitate further advancements in safety oriented connectivity. Marking a major shift from prior policies, the cooperation between a major service provider and safe-software suppliers will open up a vital opportunity for cost-effective development of cutting edge safety features as further regulations are placed on OEMs both in the United States and abroad. Interestingly, these safety features are applicable beyond in-car use, additionally being able to communicate with pedestrians and warn of oncoming traffic or other hazards. Linking the two groups in such a way could drastically reduce the number of accidents between cars and pedestrians, saving countless lives on a yearly basis. Connected car was presented as an answer to the next generation of questions concerning the safety of drivers and passengers of the newest personal vehicles. Moreover, AI based algorithms for insurance, condition monitoring, and emergency services were presented by OEMs and suppliers as accurate solutions for some of automotive technology’s most pressing issues. A speaker from Mercedes-Benz USA informed listeners at a June 7 panel that an onboard analysis of ADAS incidents could be used to notify authorities in an event of an emergency such as a driver seizure. Other companies like MOTER Technologies presented the ability to create advanced driver behavior based insurance in real time using edge processing in order to process data at the car, transmitting less data from the car, saving cost and mitigating privacy issues at the same time. MOTER is the first company to obtain approval for this form of high-tech driver’s insurance in the US, so a revolution in affordable insurance is on the cusp of taking the industry by storm. Topics covering the connected car’s efficacy and benefits took up a significant amount of AutoTech’s bandwidth, making clear to manufacturers and suppliers where the future of the auto industry lies. Beyond the importance of safety, software defined vehicles were a preeminent topic examined by almost all attendees across the show floor. Industry experts noted repeatedly that software within vehicles is coming to define the consumer experience, and that customers are demanding more and better software-based features out of their cars. Some questions continue to surround the method of entertainment for owners of EVs at charging stations, in which they may find themselves needing to be occupied for one to two hours while their car recharges. For example, BMW recently announced a partnership with AirConsole that allows driver’s of their vehicles to play a collection of curated video games while they wait for their EV to charge, by using their Smartphone as a game controller. https://www.linkedin.com/embeds/publishingEmbed.html?articleId=8564693891085967291&li_theme=light Further, new methods of bundling entertainment as OEM controlled subscriptions were floated by panelists from automakers and major studios, perhaps opening the gate to significant changes to the way content is viewed by the driver and passengers in a car. Similarly, as the debate around the future of AM and FM continues to divide the automotive world, up and coming audio services sought to make their mark and move in to snap up the market share of in-vehicle audio listeners. AutoTech presented the reality of the entertainment space as a crucial piece of the software puzzle for OEMs, one which had to be answered well enough to meet the consumer’s growing needs. Like CES in January, AutoTech was an environment of businesses coming together to present real solutions to current problems. AutoTech proved that the auto industry is actively making the leap into next generation connected car and software defined vehicle technology. Business models continue to evolve, and the breakneck pace of development was spurred on by the myriad of ready-for-market services and innovations covering all facets of the market from insurance to in-car entertainment. The excitement and importance of the AutoTech Detroit event on the calendar should not be underestimated, allowing industry professionals the opportunity to easily peer into the future of tomorrow’s automotive world today.
The Weakest Link
This is part two of a three part series on the development of EVs and their supporting infrastructure in the United States. It is said that a chain is only as strong as its weakest link. In terms of the transition away from internal combustion engines towards electric vehicles, charging stations are the said “weakest link.” As essential as gas stations used by their ICE counterparts, EV charging stations are a fast developing but greatly lagging piece of the EV adoption puzzle in the United States. According to the White House in February, there are currently about 130,000 charging stations across the country which service three million or so EVs. Five years ago, the number was a little over half of that. While growing steadily for the last 10 years, the need for car charging stations is on the cusp of an explosion. The Biden Administration’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) actively encourages and incentivizes the mass adoption of both light EVs and medium/heavy duty commercial EVs, which will require significantly more powerful and larger charging stations. If the US is to expect tens of millions of new light EVs, medium duty EVs, and heavy duty EVs to hit the road by 2030, substantial steps need to be taken to make sure that there are enough charging stations to meet the massive demand. https://www.linkedin.com/embeds/publishingEmbed.html?articleId=7033500277189233670&li_theme=light The first step will be to provide funding for companies to build the required number of charging stations to meet this demand. S&P Global, a NYC based financial analytics company, estimates that by 2027, the United States will need 1.2 million level 2 chargers and 109,000 level 3 chargers to meet the EV electricity demands. This is a stark increase from current capabilities, and at an estimated need of a 10 to 1 ratio of EVs to charging stations, it will take quite some time to reach these goals. Fortunately however, the Biden administration just this past week announced that over $2.5 billion in funding will be made available to local, city, and county governments for the express purpose of building more EV charging stations and expanding the availability of chargers to underserved areas. U.S. Secretary of Energy Jennifer M. Granholm said in the White House press release that “extending EV charging infrastructure into traditionally underserved areas will ensure that equitable and widespread EV adoption takes hold,” and will ensure “that charging stations more visible and accessible in our communities addresses the concerns many American drivers have when considering making the switch to electric.” So already, steps are being taken in the right direction to meet infrastructure demands. https://www.linkedin.com/embeds/publishingEmbed.html?articleId=8836377427900808895&li_theme=light The second step for EV charging will be to fix the chronic reliability issues that plague the current charging network. According to a J.D. Power study and recently reported by Automotive News, between Q1 2021 and Q3 2022, failed charging attempts rose from 15% to 21%, and in the last year, nearly 2 in 5 charging attempts were unsuccessful. If the average American is expecting to be able to rely upon an EV to get them from point A to point B, a near 40% failure rate to “refuel” their car will not be sustainable. Reasons for these failures can include out of service chargers, vandalism, software problems, and payment processing issues. These errors are partially caused by the volume of traffic received by each station, with some stations having nearly no downtime at all because of availability issues. This creates a vicious cycle in which there are not enough charging stations, so the ones that do exist are strained to the point where they break, therefore causing less charging stations to be available overall, and so on. To fix the overall problem, some of the resources dedicated to building the new charging stations need to be used to shore up the already existing charging infrastructure dotting the US. https://www.linkedin.com/embeds/publishingEmbed.html?articleId=9178542192637438259&li_theme=light The EV charging station situation is not optimal or perfect by any means, but when a revolutionary new technology enters the market, there are always bound to be some bumps along the road towards implementation. Continued investment from private companies and at all levels of government will be required to fix the problems outlined above, but fortunately great funding and emphasis is already being put into this widely acknowledged problem. The goal of the US government is to create a seamless transition to EVs in which charging a car has the same level of convenience as filling a car up at a gas station, and by dedicating a combined total of $7.5 billion to doing so, it shows that the necessary funding and support exist to make it a reality. Stay tuned in two weeks for Part 3 of AMA’s story on the development of EV infrastructure in the United States. Learn more about how the AutoMobility Advisors team can help you and your business seize the amazing opportunities to serve the new mobility market. Click on the link below and get in touch, we’d love to talk with you! #evcharginginfrastructure #evcharging #ev #electricvehicles #futuremobility #newmobility #connectedvehicles #digitaltransformation #AutoMobility Advisors
Cars and Copper
This is part one of a three part series on the development of EVs and their supporting infrastructure in the United States. The automotive industry of the 21st century is experiencing a paradigm shift across all facets of vehicle production, distribution, maintenance, and consumer experience. Gas and internal combustion engines are no longer the sole method of powering automobiles. In fact, their long reign of dominance in the automotive market seems to be on the way out. In its place, EVs have exploded forth as an alternative capable of saving the environment through zero emissions and smart technology. Dedicated EV producers, led by Tesla, have gained substantial market share over the last five years, while long established OEMs like GM, Hyundai, VW, and Toyota have started to roll out brand new EVs at a breakneck pace. As EVs continue to gain ground, and with the introduction of medium and heavy duty commercial EVs to the market, the capacity for electrical charging will need to increase rapidly and efficiently in order to meet the ever increasing demand for electric vehicles. As this demand grows and more charging stations are built, a fundamentally important question must be addressed: how will the US power grid be able to keep up with and sustain America’s future power needs? Currently, only a minority of the total automotive market share is occupied by electric vehicles. A variety of news organizations including the New York Times and Automotive News reported that as of last year, only about 1% of the total cars on the road in the US were electric vehicles, and in 2022 made up a 7% of all new car purchases. Despite these relatively small numbers, there have been a number of incidents in which the electrical grid has struggled to support the charging demands even from existing electric vehicles. During a heatwave in California last September, grid operators advised customers to not charge their EVs in the evenings in order to avoid an overload of the grid. So we see that already problems have begun to surface in the power industry’s ability to keep up with demand, especially during times of inclement weather. As EVs continue to eat up more and more market share, incidents like what happened in California will become more widespread without major improvements to the power grid. https://www.linkedin.com/embeds/publishingEmbed.html?articleId=6925531279594137372&li_theme=light Another, and perhaps more arduous issue facing the American electrical infrastructure is the coming launch and mass marketization of larger commercial EVs. The Biden Administration’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) was signed into law last August, and the bill laid out enormous incentives for the mass adoption of medium duty and heavy duty EVs (over 14,000 lbs). With a $40,000 tax credit available for all medium and heavy duty EVs, the miniscule market share currently occupied by these vehicles is projected to take off by the end of the decade. While substantially cleaner for the environment than their diesel and gasoline counterparts, these kinds of vehicles also demand significantly more energy to go the same distance as a lighter passenger EV. The energy usage for medium and heavy duty EVs is between 0.5 and 5.2 kWh per mile, while light EVs consume 0.2 – 0.4 kWh per mile. In 2022, over four million semi-trucks were operated in the US alone, excluding all other types of medium and heavy duty vehicles. It isn’t hard to imagine that an already beleaguered electrical grid will noticeably struggle to provide enough power for four to five million new EV semi-trucks, let alone all of the other segments of the market. https://www.linkedin.com/embeds/publishingEmbed.html?articleId=7258730335952157014&li_theme=light However, these power concerns are not insurmountable. The Wall Street Journal reported in an article last month that the 2.1 million EVs on the road in 2021 only required 0.2% of the total electricity consumed for the entire year. It is not likely that the US power grid will be able to stay ahead of demand to such an extent as EVs shift towards a dominant position in the automotive market, but with such a head start, the problem is certainly not unsolvable. Continued investment in optimizing clean energy, nuclear power, and upgrading electrical infrastructure across the country will ensure that power needs are met 24/7. These upgrades are essential to ensure the solvency of the nation’s power grid as it grapples with the rise of EVs, but the next step requires thorough examination, expansion, and further investment in the powerpoints themselves. Part 2 of AMA’s EV story will dive into the progress, flaws, and necessary actions needed to shore up one of the most essential components of the United States’ switch to electric vehicles: EV charging stations Learn more about how the AutoMobility Advisors team can help you and your business seize the amazing opportunities to serve the new mobility market. Click on the link below and get in touch, we’d love to talk with you! https://www.linkedin.com/embeds/publishingEmbed.html?articleId=7797880136967695981&li_theme=light Read the latest AutoMobility Roadmap here and subscribe today. #evinfrastructure #electricvehicles #evcharging #newmobility #futuremobility AutoMobility Advisors