The Green Acceleration

October 23, 2023

Rapid technological advancement is often a symptom of great human need. On a fateful December day in 1903, the Wright Brothers accomplished the first controlled flight of a heavier-than-air aircraft. After almost 5000 years of human civilization, this was the first time that humans were able to achieve this momentous feat. Yet, 66 years later, within one single lifetime, man landed on the moon. These 66 years saw two globe spanning conflicts and one of the most rapid eras of technological development in human history. Simply put, the need to defeat advanced and threatening enemies drove near-unthinkable levels of innovation. In the 21st century, a new enemy has arisen, one perhaps as existentially threatening or more than the United States’ previous adversaries abroad. This new enemy is not an ideology or a country, but the dangers to our planet that have resulted from decades of burning excessive fossil fuels. Climate change is the next great hurdle humans have to overcome. The United Nations among a variety of other global organizations has reported that the Earth’s temperature has increased by an average of about 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit since 1880 and could potentially warm by 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit by 2050. Assuming that nothing is done to curb this change, these higher temperatures will result in water shortages, unlivable summer conditions, higher ocean temperatures, and greater prevalence of extreme, life threatening weather events. Though grim, this challenge is not insurmountable, and the automotive industry has an increasingly viable solution. The investment into and mass adoption of electric vehicles will have an enormous impact on slowing the climate change crisis, especially as growing need drives further innovation.

According to the EPA, the transportation industry accounts for 29% of all US Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions. This sector of the economy is by far the largest contributor to GHG emissions, and the EPA has thus far spent decades working to curb these numbers. Globally, passenger cars produce nearly 3 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions per year. Moreover, cars and vans alone produce just under 50% of all global carbon emissions. It is clear that the automotive industry makes up a disproportionate percentage of the world’s emissions output, so the adoption of EVs will make a significant impact on the efficacy of the global climate response. Regulators, automakers, and consumers alike have recognized that EVs are an important step towards reducing these numbers, and great strides are being made towards conquering the challenge presented by the climate crisis.

Since 2016, most major automakers and new automotive startups have funneled enormous amounts of capital and talent into EVs. In the last two years alone, investment has skyrocketed from $50 billion to $210 billion, driven by stricter legislation and widespread consumer demand for environmentally conscious vehicles. Much of the investment goes towards developing brand new EV models. Companies such as Ford and GM now have flagship EV models that are able to compete directly with the likes of Tesla and Rivian. Moreover, consumers are noticing and rewarding automakers for their commitment to EVs. In Q3 this year, Tesla’s share of the EV market dropped below 50%, as more buyers look to traditional manufacturers offering competitive products. However, this was the strongest quarter for EV sales ever, with over 300,000 vehicles sold, surpassing both Q2 and passing Q3 2022 by almost 50%. Coming in at just under 8% of the total market sales in Q3, EVs have a long way to go until they dominate the market, but these bullish sales figures paint a rosy picture for environmentalists, regulators, and OEMs alike.

The next step in reducing carbon emissions is the mass implementation of battery-electric medium and heavy duty vehicles. A frequent point of discussion on the AutoMobility Roadmap, electric commercial vehicles have the potential to completely overhaul the way in which businesses produce carbon emissions. Cutting out nearly 25% of all transportation CO2 emissions (456.6 million tons of carbon dioxide) sounds like an impossibility, but with such strong financial incentives from the US government, it is closer to reality than previously thought. A plethora of commercial vehicle companies are investing time and money into developing practical EVs that fill the needs for markets such as tractor trailers and delivery trucks. Attacking toxic emissions outputs from this direction is sure to be a necessary step in the battle against climate change.

In the grand scheme of things, the battle against climate change has only just begun. EVs still make up a small minority of the market, and the challenges around their production have not yet been solved. 110 years ago, the aviation industry was in the same situation. Difficult production of expensive novel technologies held aircraft back. But with time and urgent need, this lull was rapidly reversed, leading humanity to walk on the moon not six decades later. EVs have reached that critical stage, and as summers become hotter and severe weather more deadly, it is almost inevitable that EVs will capture a large enough portion of the market to make a stand against climate change.

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